Several EU/EEA countries have seen a decrease in the overall incidence of COVID-19 in recent weeks, most likely due to the intensification of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the epidemiological situation is still of great concern in the EU/EEA, with most countries experiencing high or increasing notification rates in the elderly and/or high mortality rates. Although vaccination has started in all EU/EEA countries, with priority targeting groups at high risk of developing severe clinical forms (elderly and long-term care residents), as well as health care staff and other frontline workers, it is still too early to detect an impact on mortality or hospitalizations caused by COVID-19.

while most countries are currently seeing a decline in overall incidence in response to NPIs, the entry and increased spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants first identified in the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351 ) and Brazil (P.1) has raised concern. As recent anti-lockdown protests and civil unrest in some European cities suggest, pandemic fatigue could negatively affect continued acceptance and compliance with NPIs by the population.

as of 21 January 2021, EU/EEA countries have seen a substantial increase in the number and proportion of cases of COVID-19 with variant B.1.1.7, first reported in the United Kingdom. Ireland reports that B.1.1.7 is the dominant circulating SARS-CoV-2 strain, and based on observed growth trends, several other countries expect a similar situation in the coming weeks. The B.1.351 variant has also been increasingly reported in EU/EEA countries, often but not exclusively travel-related, and has also been associated with outbreaks. The P.1 variant is so far reported at lower levels, possibly because it is mainly related to travel to and from Brazil, where it appears to be spreading.

The B.1.1.7 variant appears to be more transmissible than the strains that previously predominated in circulation and may cause more severe infections. Several countries where the variant has become dominant have seen a rapid increase in incidence. This has led to increased hospitalizations, pressure on health systems and excess mortality. B.1.351 is also associated with increased transmissibility. In addition, there is evidence indicating a potential reduction in vaccine effectiveness for some of the COVID-19 vaccines compared to this variant.

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